Action Under Uncertainty - DISCOVERING TRUTHS and ANNOUNCING THEM
 
Suppose that you're offered the following bet: If a coin lands heads you will win $1.50. If it lands tails you will lose $1. Your credence in heads is .5. (Assume that the fact that you're being offered this bets gives you no information about the odds of heads or tails.) Is it rational to accept the bet?

According to expected utility theory, it is, and this seems right (setting aside risk aversion). What does a knowledge-action account advise? Well, that depends. Consider two possibilities:

1) You are certain that the coin is fair, so you know that the objective chance of heads is .5. You can use the fact about the objective chance as a reason to take the bet.

2) You have no idea whatsoever about the bias of the coin. Using the principle of indifference, you assign credence .5 to heads. What knowledge do you have that could makes it rational to accept the bet? (Hawthorne and Stanley don't want to allow knowledge of subjective credences.) If there isn't any relevant knowledge, then it's not  rational to accept the bet.

Here the knowledge-action account seems to makes a distinction between the two cases that expected utility theory does not. This is worrisome for the knowledge-action account.

Note: Expected utility theory will distinguish between the two cases when you're allowed to acquire additional evidence first. But that's not an option here.

-Mary
Nick
3/24/2010 01:47:33 pm

Agreed. It's a problem for them.

I think your argument can be strengthened if you stipulate that this is a situation where you rationally have a prior probability of .5 in heads and .5 in tails and no relevant evidence. (In general, it must be the case that you can rationally have a prior probability of .5 in some event, and have no relevant evidence related to that event, so it would seem knowledge-action folks would have to admit the possibility of this kind of case.) This way, you don't need to appeal to any controversial indifference principle. I think that might distract some people.

Reply
Tom
3/27/2010 02:26:20 am

Hi Mary,

I think that perhaps the Action-Knowledge person should say something like this. Suppose you call the coin "X". Let:

P: X will land heads if tossed.
Q: X is a coin.

Presumably you know Q. Plausibly:

Pr(P/Q)=0.5

This will then provide a starting point for the relevant expected utility calculation. Is there anything wrong with this?

Tom.

Reply
3/28/2010 03:33:47 am

Nick: I think you might have to say some more as to how you ended up with a .5 credence that the coin will land heads in a way that didn't involve you obtaining knowledge that might be relevant to your action.

If the principle of indifference is problematic, then so, I think, is the idea that we all start off with precise priors in propositions concerning coins we've never seen before and have no information on. You might think this is an argument that the knowledge-action account is drawing an important distinction that decision theory with sharp probabilities isn't.

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Alex Jackson
3/28/2010 03:44:41 am

Hey Mary,
I think this is a good objection to Hawthorne & Stanley (2008). here's the case i like: Betty has a hunch that the restaurant she likes is on 5th street. her credence is not based on anything she knows. according to Hawthorne & Stanley, epistemic probability is a function of what one knows. given that account, it is not true that it is epistemically likely for Betty that the restaurant is on 5th street. so H&S can't say Betty can act on knowledge of an epistemic chance.
i think the right response is to say that there is a knowledge-norm of full belief. there is another norm for partial belief. knowledge is relevant to the assessment of action on the basis of full belief, and not to the assessment of action on the basis of partial belief. (that should be qualified...) The knowledge norm should not be viewed as the standard for being rational. On this proposal, it is not true that: "If there isn't any relevant knowledge, then it's not rational to accept the bet."
i've got a draft on this stuff if you're interested: http://fas-philosophy.rutgers.edu/jackson/Partial%20belief.pdf
alex

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Nick
3/28/2010 04:25:28 am

Andrew: All we need here is that there exists a possible case where you ought to have a prior probability of .5. (And really, similar arguments could be made for any non-trivial probabilities). Then knowledge-norm folks will have problems with Mary's case.

I see two ways out of this for a strict knowledge norm lover. First, you could try to say, as Tom is, that there's really some knowledge that in all cases of this kind. Therefore, you can't act on purely prior probabilities.

Second, you could say that in the no knowledge case, you have to act on a tautology or something that's a priori. This is unattractive, since it doesn't seem like you're acting on a tautology, and you should always have to act on something a priori like "it's reasonable to have a prior of .5 here".

Third, this isn't a way out, but you could weaken the view as Alex is recommending. This is probably the most reasonable way to go.

Reply
Nick
3/28/2010 04:31:47 am

Missing a negation.

"you should always have to act on something a priori like "it's reasonable to have a prior of .5 here"." should read

"you shouldn't always have to act on something a priori like "it's reasonable to have a prior of .5 here"."

Reply
3/28/2010 06:08:09 am

Right... but I was suggesting that there is a distinction between cases like (1) and (at least some) cases like (2) which the knowledge norm is tracking. So I don't think a way out is needed.

Even if you're not a knowledge-action guy, it strikes me as utterly implausible that we should have sharp credences in a proposition even when we don't have any evidence regarding p, or only unspecific evidence. A situation where I have a sharp credence of .5 that the coin will land heads is special - I have some evidence, perhaps knowledge of the chances, that allowed me to form a precise opinion like that.

So I think the case that you shouldn't take the bet in case (2) if you don't have any relevant knowledge, is quite independently motivated.

Incidentally, though, if this is all targeted at the Hawthorne Stanley paper, I'm guessing they'd probably say it is rational to accept the bet in (2). If I remember rightly the knowledge stuff comes in when your assessing whether you acted for the right reasons (so you can still do the rational thing for the wrong reasons if you lack the relevant knowledge.)

Reply
3/28/2010 08:39:55 am

A typical subject will know lots of things about the case. He'll know, for instance, that there's no more reason to think the coin will land heads than that it will land tails. He'll also know that the expected value of taking the bet is positive.

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Alex Jackson
3/28/2010 08:42:00 am

hey andrew,

in the case i like, betty is hungry, and wants to go to the restaurant she likes in the east village. her hunch is that it is on 5th street, but she's not sure. if you want to say her credence is spread out around 0.5, you can. it is still rational for her to look first on 5th street, and not rational for her to look first on 6th street. that's not because of anything she knows.

Hawthorne & Stanley would say that betty does the right thing (viz. look first on 5th street) for the right reason, only if she acts on something she knows... but there isn't anything she knows that counts in favour of looking first on 5th street. or so i claim.

alex

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Katy
3/28/2010 09:41:09 am

Alex - what about an extension of the kind of thing Jonathan is suggesting? Maybe Betty knows that acting on her hunches minimizes expected time-to-restaurant, or something like that. (In fact, if her having a hunch about the location of the restaurant isn't at all correlated with the restaurant's being more likely to be there, my intuition that it's only rational for her to look on 5th street and not rational for her to look on 6th street first goes away.) Anyway, there's obviously room to argue about whether she's required to know that proposition, or only to justifiably believe it, but it seems like that's a proposition that might be a candidate for counting in favor of the action.

Reply
3/28/2010 11:21:52 am

It was mentioned in the main post that Hawthorne and Stanley didn't want to allow knowledge of the subjective probabilities. Does anyone know why this is?

At any rate, even if we discount knowledge about the expected utility, I'm still not sure I get the example. If, for all Betty knows, her hunches are no better than wild stabs in the dark, it's not clear to me it's rational for her to follow her hunch. I think I'd need to see the example fleshed out a bit before I was convinced.

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Alex Jackson
3/29/2010 04:55:35 am

let me comment on two proposals for defending the Hawthorne-Stanley gloss on the action-knowledge principle, suggested by the remarks of jonathan, katy and andrew.

on the first proposal, betty knows she is more confident that the restaurant is on 5th than that it is on 6th, etc. hence she knows that looking on 5th maximises her expected utility (in the sense defined from her credences). allegedly, that's conclusive reason for betty to look first on 5th street.

Reply to first proposal: in the case of full belief, it is clearly an error to confuse the roles of believing p and believing that you believe p. For example, that psychiatrists are out to get you is good reason not to visit one. That you believe that psychiatrists are out to get you /is/ good reason to visit one. It you can’t equate the normative role of a full belief with that of the belief that you believe it. So why think you can equate the normative role of a partial belief with that of a full belief that you have the partial belief? Believing you have a moderate credence that psychiatrists are out to get you rationalizes visiting one; but having the credence itself rationalizes avoiding psychiatrisits. More pertinently, if Betty doesn’t know that her hunches are reliable, then her knowing she has the hunch does not rationalize looking on 5th rather than 6th; but having the hunch (= her moderate credence) still rationalizes looking on 5th rather than 6th street. (if you’re worried about this, see the second proposal below.) I would flesh the case of betty out, so that she has only been in the city ten days. Before that she lived in a village, where she was certain of the location of every landmark. Hence she has no idea how reliable her geographical hunches are, because she hasn’t had such mere hunches before. Yet if she is more confident that the place she dined last week is on 5th than she is that it is on 6th, she should look on 5th first. No?

Here’s the second proposal. betty has a hunch that the restaurant is on 5th street. if she doesn't know her hunches are reliable, then she is no more rational to look first on 5th than on 6th street. if she does know that her hunches are reliable, and knows she has a hunch, then she can act on the basis of those beliefs. that knowledge also makes it epistemically most likely for her that the restaurant is on 5th street, and betty can act on that knowledge too.

Reply to second proposal: i do think it is counter-intuitive to say that if betty don't know her hunches are reliable, she can’t be legitimately more confident that the restaurant is on 5th. But here’s an argument. the following is a bad epistemology of knowledge by remembering: you know by introspection that you have an apparent memory that p, you know your apparent memories are reliable, and you infer that p. but why think things work that way once the apparent memory is hazy rather than clear? Rather, betty has a hazy memory, has a moderate credence the restaurant is on 5th street, and that rationalizes looking there first. She does not take as a reason something she knows.

alex

Reply
3/29/2010 05:17:10 am

The case now under consideration is this: Betty has a hunch that it's on 5th. And I take it it's uncontroversial that she knows she has this hunch. So the E=K theorist definitely gets to say that Betty has some evidence.

Now we start arguing about under what conditions Betty has evidence *that rationalizes looking on 5th first*, or whether the evidence that she uncontroversially has -- namely, that she has a hunch -- cannot serve that role. It's very natural here to fuss about whether Betty knows that her hunches are reliable. But it's not clear why that should matter. Even if she doesn't know much about the reliability of her hunches, it's open to the Williamsonian to say that the fact of the hunch nevertheless justifies her in looking on 5th first. This is because, plausibly, the probability of the restaurant's being on 5th, conditional on Betty's having the hunch that it is, is higher than the antecedent probability of the restaurant's being on 5th. There is some evidence counting in favor of the restaurant's being on 5th. So, given her total evidence, including the hunch, the expected value of looking on 5th is highest. To assume that, for the hunch to do this work, she must first know that her hunches are reliable, is to embrace a rather austere form of conservativism, which is very likely to lead either to skepticism or to an admission that Betty probably had this knowledge in some sense all along.

Reply
Mary
3/29/2010 05:29:10 am

What cases like mine and Alex's illustrate is that sometimes actions recommended by expected utility theory are not 'rational' in the sense of being performed for a reason.

Insofar as Hawthorne and Stanley's account is only meant to describe what can count as a reason, this isn't a problem for them. Andrew is totally right on that score. I wasn't entirely clear about their goal until I briefly discussed this problem with Jason after I had written my earlier post so I apologize for that.

The huge question lurking here is whether it can be rational to act without a reason. This is independent of the question of what counts as a good reason. But I think that a firm view on what can count as a reason makes the problem cases easier to see. Having a strong requirement on what it takes to be a reason means there will be fewer potential reasons available. So it will be easier to find cases where it seems like there's rational action, but no reasons.

Reply
Mary
3/29/2010 05:51:00 am

Jonathan- How would your response work for my case (2)? Granted, you can know that you have a subjective credence .5 in heads, but can you use that as a reason for taking the bet?

Stanley and Hawthorne only want to allow knowledge about epistemic probabilities- not merely subjective credences- to count as reasons. (See their response to objection 2 on p16 of their paper.)

Reply
Alex Jackson
3/29/2010 05:57:55 am

hey jonathan,

i don't get your reply. you say:
"[the] Williamsonian [can say] the probability of the restaurant's being on 5th, conditional on Betty's having the hunch that it is, is higher than the antecedent probability of the restaurant's being on 5th."
if we generalize that claim, it sounds very much like betty knows her hunches are reliable.
but here's the real point. saying betty conditionalizes on [i have a hazy apparent memory that p] is no better an epistemology of memory than saying we conditionalize on [i have a clear apparent memory that p]. or do you think one can endorse the former and not the latter?

alex

Reply
Alex Jackson
3/29/2010 06:10:29 am

hey mary,

don't concede! the 2008 hawthorne & stanley paper does assume that all rational action is done for a reason. otherwise their reply to schiffer (objection 2) would be very short! schiffer says we sometimes act rationally on mere partial beliefs. H&S do not agree. they try to argue that putuative acting on partial belief is really a case of acting on knowledge. that reply only makes sense if they are assuming that they are giving an account of rational action, and not just of when one should take p as a reason. it sounds like jason might be rightly stepping away from that position. but the 2008 paper is committed to the view you critize.

alex

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Andrew Sepielli
3/29/2010 09:39:00 am

I'd like to get clearer on some of these normative concepts. I find it impossible not to understand expected utility theory and the K-A principle as answers to different questions. The first is an answer to a question about what's rational in the purely internal sense. The second says that what's rational depends on one's being in some *factive* mental state, and as such, can't be an answer to that question.

Might I make a suggestion on H&S's behalf, though? In both cases, your reason for acting is the .5 epistemic probability that the coin will land heads. As Mary says, we can't speak of you as believing that there's a .5 objective probability in the second case. And as Alex points out, your credence/subjective probability of .5 is your reason in neither case. But what is epistemic probability? One proposal I advance in my dissertation, and that I think has been advanced by Seth Yalcin as well, is that a) epistemic probability statements express credences (as contrasted with subj probability statements, which report credences, and obj prob statements which express beliefs regarding objective probabilities), b) EP statements' sense is determined by the the credences they're used to express (i.e. this is an expressivist treatment of EP), and c) The conditions for proper application of EP-concepts works in such a way that, among other things, there's a .5 EP of heads in both of Mary's cases.

I like this proposal because it puts reasoning under uncertainty on all fours with reasoning under full belief. Suppose you believe that if you do A you'll win $100. Someone asks you for your reason for doing A. You will respond by expressing your belief: "If I do A, I'll win $100". The same thing shoudl happen under uncertainty. Your credence is .5 that if you do A, you'll win $100. Someone asks you for your reason for doing A. I claim that it's natural to respond, "There's a 50/50 chance that if I do A, I'll win $100". You're not talking ABOUT your credence, nor are you positing objective probabilities. You're simply expressing your credence through what I'm claiming is shorthand for epistemic probability talk. I think that, if your reason for action is what's cited in the first expression, then parallelly, it's what's cited in your second expression -- the epistemic probability of something's happening.

FWIW, expressivism about epistemic probability does not fall victim to the Frege-Geach problem.

Hope that makes sense.

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Andrew Sepielli
3/29/2010 09:52:59 am

To bolster part c) of my proposal, let's say that a declarative sentence is true iff. the mental state it expresses is correct. Just as "P" is true when the full belief that P is correct, "There's a .5 EP that P and a .5 EP that ~P" is true when the credence of .5 that P and .5 that ~P is correct. Such a credence seems correct in both of Mary's cases (because of the Principal Principle and the Principle of Indifference, respectively). I'm sure there's something objectionable about the connection between truth of expressions and correctness of states to which I've just adverted -- I just wanted to throw it out there...

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Alex Jackson
3/29/2010 11:49:04 am

Yo Andrew,

I’m sympathetic to some of the things you say. Here are a few thoughts.

You start by saying that Bayesianism is an account of subjective rationality, and the knowledge-action principle isn’t. I think that’s right; but Hawthorne & Stanley 2008 don’t agree. They start the paper by saying that Bayesians think the rationality of an action is not a matter of what one knows, and they will argue for an alternative. Sounds like Jason is backing off that position, though. Here’s a suggestion for what the knowledge-action principle does concern: believing is trying to know. So knowing is successful belief. Rational belief is something else. In general, a rational attempt to F need not be successful.

Suppose you’ve sketched the right semantics for “epistemic chance”, and we get it to turn out that we can say: “betty knows the most epistemically likely location is 5th street.” (this is contra the view of epistemic probability in H&S 2008.) The proposal is that betty acts on that knowledge. I think that’s a better view than H&S give; but here are two concerns.

1. Is betty in two distinct mental states, namely having credence of 0.4 in p, and a full belief that the epistemic chance is 0.4? does it make sense to suppose that betty acts on the former and not the latter? If so, the action-knowledge principle does not explain why that’s rational.

2. The semantics bottoms out in the claim that the ‘correct’ credence for betty to have is 0.4 (or whatever). That ‘correctness’ is not explained in terms of what she knows. So in such cases, the knowledge there is (viz. that the epistemic chance is 0.4) floats on top of a deeper story about ‘correct’ credences. The deep explanation for why betty's action is rational appeals to 'correct' credences.
So we still don’t get “knowledge first”.

alex

Reply
3/29/2010 08:52:31 pm

Mary, I'm denying that in your case (2), subjective credence is the only thing you can know about. I think that among the things a typical subject will know is that there's no more reason to expect it to land heads than tails. That's an objective epistemic fact, and it's known.

Alex, that Betty knows her hunches are reliable does not follow from my claim that the hunch raises the conditional probability of its content. That would only follow given the assumption that agents always know the inner workings of their own evidential probability relations. I don't see why anyone remotely Williamsonian would accept that.

Then you say this: "saying betty conditionalizes on [i have a hazy apparent memory that p] is no better an epistemology of memory than saying we conditionalize on [i have a clear apparent memory that p]. or do you think one can endorse the former and not the latter?"

Of course one can do either. We can conditionalize on whatever we know, and we can know things about our hazy memories and our clear apparent ones. You're right that this isn't a good 'epistemology of memory', but that's not because this kind of conditionalization is illegitimate: it's because in the good case, we have much more to go on than apparent clear memories to go on; we've left out a major part of the story. That doesn't mean the apparent memory can't be part of the complete story.

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Andrew Sepielli
3/30/2010 03:18:15 am

Alex,

Right, I suppose I was mainly just thinking that what one would cite as one's reason in cases of uncertainty is (what I'd call) an epistemic probability. So maybe it doesn't help H and S and much. But let's see...

Re: 1 -- I'd want to say that Betty is in the first state, and what's more, that the latter state isn't possible. Having a full belief that the EP of something is .5 is ruled out on my view in the same way that having a belief (full or otherwise) that murder is wrong is ruled out on the non-cognitivist view in ethics. That said, it does not seem obviously silly to speak of a full belief in an EP of .5, so perhaps I'm failing to capture the traditional philosophers' notion of EP. Maybe I should call what I'm talking about "minimal probability" or something like that.

So suppose Betty's action is based on the credence. Might we still say that she acts on what she knows? That is, might we say that a credence of .5 that P can sometimes amount to knowledge that there's a .5 EP, in the same way that a full belief that P can sometimes amount to knowledge that P? I'm not sure. What would be the theoretical costs of saying this?

Re: 2 -- I was arguing that there was a .5 EP in both of Mary's cases. I don't see how that's inconsistent with saying that knowledge is conceptually prior to belief/true belief/justified true belief or to credence/correct credence/justified correct credence. The only was I see myself as revising the traditional knowledge-first view is by saying that credences can be knowledge -- knowledge of EP's.

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Alex Jackson
3/30/2010 03:55:13 am

Hey Jonathan,

I’m pretty confused about what’s going on. In reverse order of your last post:

You say that conditionalizing on the fact that one has a clear/hazy apparent memory is only /part/ of the explanation for why it is rational to act as betty does. In other words, appeal to what the subject knows, and what those facts are reason to do, is not the complete explanation for what it is rational to do. But that’s exactly the view Mary and I have been arguing for. Are you just saying that we should not argue via the stronger claim that in the problematic cases, the subject’s knowledge does not count in favour /at all/ of the relevant action? If so, I think we can agree.

(this question is somewhat tangential, but never mind.) If every time the sky is grey I take my umbrella with me, then it is natural to say that I possess the information that grey skies are a reliable indicator of rain. Even if I have no such representation, my inferential dispositions seem to constitute knowledge that grey skies mean rain. If /whenever/ I have a mnemonic hunch that p, I conditionalize on that fact and thereby become more confident in p, then I possess the information that my hunches are reliable. Maybe you are assuming E=K here (and not just E is a subset of K), and would just deny the foregoing. But the agent could consider what they would do if they got as evidence that they have a mnemonic hunch that p. They would get more confident in p. So they realize that for all p they consider, P(p | hunch(p)) > P(p). How could they not then assent to the claim that their hunches are reliable?

alex

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3/30/2010 04:24:51 am

Alex: no, you misunderstand me. My claim was that IN THE GOOD CASE, the fact of the apparent memory is only part of the story -- and indeed, a relatively trivial part, swamped by much more impressive knowledge, e.g., knowledge of the content of the memory. In the hazy case, it might be that that's all there is to go one. Or it might not; other things could play similar roles. But they'll be knowledgeable.

I don't see where you're coming from on the tangential question at all. I see no reason to think that being disposed to X whenever Y constitutes knowledge that Y is a reliable indicator of Z, something that makes X a good idea. That sounds pretty crazy to me. So I don't think I understand what you're getting at.

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