Why Subjective Bayesians Should Consider Expressivism - DISCOVERING TRUTHS and ANNOUNCING THEM
 
Here's the plan: (A) Run a Moorean argument against Subjective Bayesianism, (B) Note that Subjective Bayesians don't have a good reply, (C) Identify some motivations for being a Subjective Bayesian, (D) Note that these motivations are largely meta-normative, and they are satisfied if you're an expressivist Objective Bayesian; (E) Conclude that since expressivist Objective Bayesians can avoid the Moorean argument and satisfy the motivations for Subjective Bayesianism, there is reason for Subjective Bayesians to take this kind of view seriously.

This is a toned down version of a rant to which some of you have already been subjected.

A: Moorean Argument
According to Subjective Bayesians, the following are the only norms of rational belief:

  1. Have a Prior: Have a prior that satisfies the probability axioms.

  2. Conditionalize: At all times, let your credences be the result of conditionalizing your prior probability distribution on your total evidence.

  3. Maybe: the prior should satisfy the Principal Principle

  4. Maybe: the prior should be non-dogmatic. (Roughly, unless it is analytic that p, don't have a prior probability of 1 in p. You have to say something else about continuous random variables.)
Objective Bayesians accept all of these constraints, but add constraints that rule out certain prior probability functions. Some Objective Bayesians hold that there is a unique prior that is rationally permissible.

If Subjective Bayesianism is true, then it can be perfectly rational for someone with exactly my evidence to be nearly certain of the following claim:
ZOMBIE: flesh-eating zombies are about to descend from the sky and devour us all.*
It is irrational to believe ZOMBIE when you have my evidence, so Subjective Bayesianism is false. Nothing the Subjective Bayesian throws at me will be more certain than my main premise, so my argument succeeds.

B: Subjective Bayesian Replies
Some Subjective Bayesians attempt to rebut this kind of argument by appealing to “washing out” theorems. These theorems are of the form “for any n agents whose priors satisfy certain fairly weak conditions, if those agents have a sufficiently long sequence of common observations of a certain kind, then their posterior probabilities will converge”. For instance, if you have two people drawing balls from an urn with replacement, these people satisfy 1-4, they regard the sequence of draws from the urn as exchangeable, and they conditionalize on the result of drawing from they urn, then if they see enough balls drawn from the urn, their estimates of the distribution of colors of balls in the urn will converge.

The first point is that while such theorems might help in some other contexts, they won't help with ZOMBIE. Maybe if someone regarded possible zombie strikes as exchangeable, he'd eventually agree that a zombie strike is unlikely in the near future. But (i) this isn't required by Subjective Bayesianism, and (ii) it would still be irrational to be so damn confident in ZOMBIE (at least) until he stops expecting a zombie strike.

A more entertaining reply to the use of washing out theorems comes from Carnap (though probably others made the same point before him). Although it is true that the opinions of two agents in the urn scenario will converge, the following is also true. For any credence x (0 < x < 1) that the next ball will be red (call this proposition R), for any finite sequence of observations S, there is an exchangeable prior Pr satisfying (1-4) such that Pr(R|S) = x. Put colorfully, if you lined up observers with all possible priors, no matter how long a finite sequence of red draws you had, there'd always be some guy who was 99% confident that the next ball wouldn't be red (and each such guy would be fully rational by Subjective Bayesian standards).

Long story short, I don't think that the washing out stuff mitigates the obvious weirdness of believing a lot of weird stuff, including ZOMBIE.

C: Motivation for Subjective Bayesianism
Why have people been so attracted to a view that entails things that are so obviously and irredeemably crazy? I take it there is nothing too weird (at least as an approximation) about having credences that satisfy the probability axioms and updating by conditionalization. The weirdness is entirely due to the paucity of constraints on the priors. So our question is: why go for the Subjective part of Subjective Bayesianism?

Part of the explanation of why some people have gone for this permissive view about priors is that they just mean something especially weighty by words like “irrational”, “unreasonable”, and “unjustified”. They only consider some credences irrational only if they are incoherent, where incoherence is the credence analogue of having inconsistent beliefs. Thus, we had people like Carnap at great pains to argue that the requirement to use his favorite prior was a lot like the requirement to use classical logic.

The idea that these normative notions were especially loaded, so that the two groups were, to some extent, talking past each other might help explain the disagreement. But many (most?) Subjective Bayesians, I take it, think that there is no interesting other way of using these words. So this probably isn't the end of the story.

Subjective Bayesians are, I believe, more significantly motivated by two strands of meta-normative considerations. The first strand is metaphysical: what could make some priors, but not others, rationally permissible? Indifference principles don't work, and the fact that some priors, but not others, are rationally permissible needs explanation. Something has to make it true, and there's no decently natural property that could play the role.

The second strand is epistemic: how could you know that some priors, rather than others, are rationally permissible? Someone who changed his priors after making observations and followed requirement #2 would be Dutch-book-able. So what prior you select can't depend on observation. So if it is knowable that some priors are just plain wrong, it must be a priori that they are just plain wrong. But it's not analytic that certain priors are bad (or anything like that), so it is mysterious how anyone could know whether a given prior was acceptable.

These strands interact with each other: the special property had by the good priors has to be knowable a priori, on pain of us not knowing what it is. So it couldn't be something deeply external. (It couldn't be, for instance, the probability distribution from statistical mechanics, conditional on the past hypothesis.)

That's a bit of a cartoon version of the motivations, but I think it captures the gist of it.

D: How to Meet to Motivations by Going Expressivist
These objections bear a striking resemblance to Mackie's objections to moral realism. As with Mackie's objections, there are a lot of things you can say here if you don't want to accept the Subjective Bayesian's conclusions. But those who find themselves pushed to Subjective Bayesianism upon considering these issues should take note: an expressivist meta-epistemology with an Objective Bayesian first-order epistemology could accommodate these worries, without endorsing the rational permissibility of crazy beliefs about flesh-eating zombies. On the expressivist line, there's no account of it being true or false that a certain prior is good. There is only an account of what you're doing when you say “That's an irrational prior”, and such. Roughly, you're expressing your commitment to a system of norms that rejects using that prior for belief updating. Thus, you skirt the metaphysical issue about what could make one prior better than another.

What about the epistemic objection? Consider this example:
JOHN: John uses the kind of prior that most of us, more or less, endorse. He's been using it since he was a young ideal Bayesian, conditionalizing ever since. John reflects on his use of this prior, considering its justifiability. Since John endorses a system of norms that uses this prior, he says, “I'm glad I used a good prior.” When he sees another guy using the ZOMBIE prior, he adds, “It sure is crazy to be worried about that.”
I take it that it is not an essential part of this story that John, behind the scenes, endorsed in some objectionable variety of a priori reflection. So there's no problem here either.**

E: Conclusion
If you're worried about ZOMBIE and you're motivated by the standard arguments for Subjective Bayesianism, Objective Bayesian expressivism might worth looking into. The view will inherit some of the problems of expressivism, but I doubt they will be as bad as endorsing wild beliefs about ZOMBIE.

I think you can run a similar argument against most versions of Humeanism about reasons.

Disclaimer: I don't mean to implicate that I endorse an expressivist version of Objective Bayesianism.

*Technically, you could get out of this by insisting that it is part of my evidence that zombies are not going to fall from the sky and devour us all. You might think, for instance, that we know that this isn't going to happen, and we therefore ought to have conditionalized on the claim that it won't happen. This sort of reply is short-sighted though. Just insert some other example of something that clearly merits little credence, given our present evidence, but is not entailed by our present evidence. (E.g., we'll all die at the hands of nuclear terrorists within the next two years.) For rhetorical purposes, I will stick to talking about flesh-eating zombies.

**Things may be a bit trickier than this. It isn't especially clear, even if expressivism is true, how you're supposed to get your normative beliefs. However, even if it is true that expressivists like John who go around using good priors are somehow engaging in an objectionable variety of a priori reasoning, what is really crazier to believe at the end of the day: (i) it is rationally permissible to use a priori reasoning to select a prior, or (ii) it is rationally permissible for someone with my evidence to expect flesh-eating zombies to fall from the sky and devour us all? At any rate, appeal to expressivism helps here at least as much as it helps in meta-ethical contexts.

--Nick Beckstead

Andrew Sepielli
6/28/2010 09:22:12 pm

Nick -- Really nice post. I have some questions, though:

1) Could you be a bit clearer on what the subjectivists' metaphysical argument is? I can't see any grounds on which to label constraints on priors "queer" that either a) wouldn't also apply to any rational constraints on belief, or b) don't just make the metaph. argument collapse into the/an epistemic argument. (By contrast, Mackie had special reasons related to moral motivation for disallowing morality specifically but keeping other sorts of normativity.)

2) I also have some questions about the move to expressivism. As I understand it, expressivism is a meta-semantic theory about the explanations for the semantic rules governing a domain of discourse. But it doesn't really make sense to "go expressivist" until we've considered a prior question about psychology -- namely, what kinds of states are being expressed by utterances in this discourse? If we say "Oh, they're just regular beliefs", then an expressivist meta-semantics seems all wrong. It only makes sense if they're non-belief states. You get expressivism as a popular position in ethics precisely because people have antecedent reasons to think moral judgments are non-belief states. Do you have any special reasons to think that the states being expressed by claims about constraints on priors (but not, apparently, about other constraints), are not beliefs?

3) Nor do I see how expressivism is going to help you with the epistemic problem. I think you acknowledge this to some degree, but I just wanna pursue it a bit more. You have your subjectivist asking, "How could you know that some priors, rather than others, are rationally permissible?" What might you say in response?

a) I can't know. You're right. Let me go cry now.
b) I can know, by the natural light of reason, that the Creator in his infinite goodness hath bestoweth to all men (and even to Aqualung)!
c) Dumb question. Knowing P is just believing P plus some other stuff. But claims about constraints on priors don't express beliefs.

a) is obviously no good. b) looks good to me, except for the Creator stuff, but expressivism isn't getting you this result. Now for c): The subjectivist is probably going to say: "Screw you. They are beliefs." If he's right, then your project doesn't seem like it's going to work. So let's suppose he's wrong. Then he might say: "Okay, okay, but surely these other states -- commitments, you're calling them -- are such that the propriety of holding them is governed by normative rules, pretty much like the rules that govern belief."

If you say:"Yeah, sure," then you've got something tantamount to the epistemic problem all over again -- only instead of "Why should I believe that?", you're going to be asked "What should I be committed to that?" or what-have-you. (This, I think, is the possibility you're noting towards the end.) If you say: "No, they're not governed by rules like that," then the expressivist is probably going to say (before slitting his wrists, having realized that his entire universe has been turned upside-down): "Okay Nick -- back in the day, I used to think that when objectivists talked about constraints on priors, that they were expressing their beliefs, or at least these attitudes that you could (normatively) only have if you had evidence/arguments like those you have to have for beliefs. That's why when they talked their objectivist talk, I was so opposed to it. But my opposition was based on assuming what I now see is the wrong psychology! Given the nature of the states they're REALLY expressing, I'm obviously not bothered that they can't answer, "Why should I be committed to that?", because it's asking for normative reasons that are just plain inapplicable!"

As a sociological matter: in moral philosophy, I can't think of a single expressivist who thinks that his expressivism is going to help him with the epistemic questions, and as I was trying to show, there are good reasons why none of them seem to think this.

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Andrew Sepielli
6/28/2010 10:20:54 pm

FWIW, here's what I'd say to the subjectivist Bayesian: "Look, don't just ask about prior probabilities in isolation from the results you get out on the other end. I.e. don't proceed by asking whether we should assign a higher prior probability to a large but smooth thing being in your mom's basement or to a smaller by more jagged thing, as though that sort of thing could be transcendentally deduced. Instead, ask about the good old, everybody's-gotta-accept-it property of truth -- which propositions are true? And then you say: the better priors are the ones such that, if you start with them and proceed by the rational update rules, your credence will be higher in the true propositions."

The subjectivist might say, "No way! Then what you ought in some sense to have credence in will depend on something EXTERNAL to you. And I deny that. There is no viable sense of ought in which what credences you ought to have can depend on anything other than your own mental states." Now I think we've gotten at the real issue: is there a viable sense of "epistemic reasons"/"the epistemic ought"/whatever on which it depends on stuff outside your mind. But the subjectivist Bayesian is not going to object to this sense of ought because of "queerness" or "our way of knowing about would have to be utterly different..." concerns (i.e. Mackie-type concerns). He's going to object to it for, I suspect, the same general kinds of reasons that people claim to object to particular kinds of oughts in ethics -- the objective ought, the subjective ought, the ought re: what you ought to do when you're normatively uncertain, etc.

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Nick Beckstead
6/29/2010 04:10:55 pm

Thanks for the interesting and detailed response. I agree that I may have overplayed the metaphysical objection and that it is not totally clear about how expressivism helps with the epistemic objection. I also agree that internalism is an important part of the motivation for SB.

Here are some responses:
1)Although I noted the resemblance with Mackie, I didn't say anything about queerness. The point is that people want an answer to the following question, which seems metaphysical to me: In virtue of what are some priors better than others? Subjective Bayesians I have spoken with have asked versions of this question, and they tend not to be pleased with answers like: “There is nothing in virtue of which some priors are better than others. That's just the way it is.”
Subjective Bayesians, at least some old school ones, seem to think that their view is grounded in something like logic. This is part of the reason, I think, that Carnap felt an obligation to show that his favorite priors were favored by logic.
2)I was suggesting that SB folks go expressivist about all epistemic constraints, not just priors. (This, I admit, would fail to honor their intuition that there is an asymmetry between having a good prior and updating by conditionalization.)
Do I have evidence that we use epistemic vocabulary to express commitments? I didn't when I wrote this. Here are some things off the top of my head. I'd imagine that we have motivation to follow epistemic norms that we endorse, so however that helps with expressivism in moral contexts, it could help here. You could also run an Open Question argument (I know some meta-ethical expressivists think that helps them out here). (True, knowledge of chances settles things. Probably the thing to do there is be an expressivist about chance, a position which I find independently plausible.)

We need a state that constitutes having an updating policy, and this state must be more than a mere belief (otherwise we'd have Archilles and the Tortoise problems). Given the coincidence between saying “I ought to follow updating policy P” and following updating policy P, the hypothesis that you express your commitment to that policy by making that utterance might be fairly reasonable.

The idea that a prior plays more than just a belief-like role is independently plausible. Arguably, we need the notion of a hypothetical prior to make sense of de se updating and forgotten evidence. (See Meacham (2008) for a definition of a hypothetical prior http://www.springerlink.com/content/r2q48685670x1661/. Since there may be no point at which you ought to have the credences demanded by the hypothetical prior and the hypothetical prior is static, it is not implausible to regard having the prior, and not just having beliefs about what the prior ought to be, as having certain commitments/policies.
3)How does expressivism help with the epistemic worries? Maybe it doesn't, and it is interesting to hear that this is what meta-ethical expressivists think.
I think my JOHN example traded more on the idea that it was enough to just use a good prior, one needn't go through a fancy process of arguing for the prior. This option is open to non-expressivist objective Bayesians. Perhaps once you have given up on the idea that there has to be some fact F in virtue of which a certain prior is good, which is natural once you become an expressivist, you do not feel obliged to give an a priori argument that your prior has F. You can just say “It's a reasonable place to start.”* (Perhaps, all along, we should have felt this reply was reasonable.)
*That doesn't mean you can't argue about priors. You can make standard moves, such as pointing out that someone else's prior has implausible consequences for updating, or that projects over bogus properties, etc. But perhaps we should regard these arguments as dialectically useful tools, and not essential ingredients to justified use of a prior.

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Nick Beckstead
6/29/2010 04:33:27 pm

For the internalism bit, I think what I said about apriority and the epistemic objection captures that. The idea was that for you to be justified in having certain prior probabilities as your credences (absent evidence), you have to be able to be propositionally justified in believing that you ought to have those credences. I gave an argument that this kind of justification would have to be a priori. Of course, it is difficult to come up with a non-trivial argument that you ought to have certain priors. (Hence my suggestion that you just say, “This is a reasonable place to start”. (Do pick a reasonable place to start when you say this.) This way of things corresponds to the classic internalist requirement that in order to be justified in believing p, you must be propositionally justified in believing that you're justified in believing p.

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Hicks
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Nick: I really liked this article, and I certainly support Moorean arguments against subjective Bayesianism. I’m writing a bit late, and I’m going to repeat some of Andrew’s points. Sorry!

I’m not sure that expressive objectivism is the right response, though. Here’s why:

Expressive objectivism seeks to share some of the bad motivations of subjective bayesianism. Your cartoony version: “But it's not analytic that certain priors are bad (or anything like that), so it is mysterious how anyone could know whether a given prior was acceptable.”

But, as Andrew’s pointed out, this is just bad internalist epistemology. The right response here is to go externalist: it doesn’t matter whether you can know that you have the right priors, only that you have them (though, likely, you can know—presumably, priors in the right set endorses themselves).

What makes one prior better than another? Better priors yield more successes—where success is measured by desire fulfillment(insert your favorite decision theory here).

Rationality constraints have to be universalizable, though, so you can’t make right priors be too specific: they’ve got to work for everybody. The more people you include, the less success your priors can yield. So universality trades off with success. Possibly, there’s not exactly one right prior, but instead a set of preferred priors with a good enough tradeoff of success and generality. We’ll call this desire-based betterness constraint 'prior Humeanism'.

Prior Humeanism just extends externalist “traditional” epistemology to formal epistemology and founds normative facts in desires (scare quotes here because externalism is a new-enough epistemological view). Note that these two responses could be separated, but together they yield a pretty plausible account that deals with your metaphysical problem and addresses (by rejecting) your epistemic concern.

I don’t see how your criticisms of subjective bayesianism or traditional objective bayesianism bear on prior Humeanism. Furthermore, it seems like keeping internalism but dropping cognitivism burns the barn to kill the rats--internalist constraints seem to involve valid inference, valid inference relies on truth preservation, and expressivism denies truth aptitude.

So, it looks to me like prior Humeanism is the way to go.

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