How to rationally base a belief on the expected utility of holding it

4/12/2010

In “The Rationality of Belief and Some Other Propositional Attitudes,” Kelly appears to endorse the following theses:

Psychological thesis: For any subject S and any proposition p: it’s not possible for S to hold a belief that p on the basis of the belief that it is in S’s best interest to believe p.

Weak rationality thesis: For any S and any p: it’s not possible for S’s belief that p to be epistemically rationalized by S’s belief that it is in S’s best interest to believe p.

Strong rationality thesis: For any S and any p: it’s not possible for S’s belief that p to be all things considered rationalized by S’s belief that it is in S’s best interest to believe p.

(Kelly doesn’t clearly distinguish between the weak and the strong rationality theses; however, it’s pretty clear that he’s committed to both.)

Here’s a counterexample to all three theses:

A semi-evil demon hands Sheila a folded sheet of paper. Before she unfolds the sheet, the demon tells her the following: “On this paper I have written a single sentence. If, upon reading the sentence written on this piece paper, you come to believe the sentence is true, I will give you a million dollars. If not, I will inflict severe bodily harm upon you.”

Suppose furthermore that Sheila has strong evidence that the demon is i) a reliable mind reader, ii) capable of carrying out his promise, iii) sincere in his promise. Sheila thus comes to believe the following proposition:

P: It is in my best interest to believe that the sentence written on the sheet of paper is true.

Next, Sheila opens the sheet of paper and reads the following sentence:

S: It is in your best interest to believe this sentence is true.

Sheila reason as follows: the written expression, “this sentence” refers to the sentence written on the sheet of paper. By P, Sheila concludes that it is in her best interest to believe said sentence. Since the sentence simply says that it is in her best interest to believe said sentence, Sheila concludes:

C: The sentence written on the sheet of paper is true.

Reflecting on this case, I think the following three claims are plausible:

1) Sheila believes C on the basis of her belief that P.
2) Sheila’s belief that P epistemically rationalizes her belief that C.
3) Sheila’s belief that P all things considered rationalizes her belief that C.

Clearly, 1) is inconsistent with Kelly’s psychological thesis; 2) is inconsistent with the weak rationality thesis; and 3) is inconsistent with the strong rationality thesis.

Any thoughts?

-Bob

197 Comments

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4/12/2010 12:21:26 am

That seems compatible with the spirit of Kelly's view. (Just append something like "when this fact about interests is not itself evidence that p is true" to each of the theses.)

Daniel

4/12/2010 01:00:00 am

I think Richard's right.

Also, on thesis 3, I don't think Kelly thinks there is a notion of "all things considered rationality" for beliefs. He agrees that we can ask whether a belief is epistemically rational, and we can ask whether it would be practically rational to try to get yourself to hold it, but there isn't some other sense of rationality that we can use to evaluate beliefs, and which incorporates both epistemic and practical evaluation.

Bob

4/12/2010 09:59:42 am

Thanks for the comments.

In response to Richard, I agree that my counterexample is consistent with the spirit of Kelly’s view. Sheila’s case is admittedly quite unusual, and nothing I have said suggests that ordinary people in ordinary circumstances ever hold their beliefs based on the expected consequences of holding them, let alone that they ever rationally base their beliefs on the expected consequences of believing them. Similarly, nothing I have said supports Foley’s claim that it can be all things considered rational to believe p even if it is epistemically irrational to believe p.

Nonetheless, I’m not sure that your proposed emendation is sufficient to deal with the counterexample. Suppose that P is in fact false. (Perhaps Sheila has misleading evidence about the demon’s sincerity; unbeknownst to Sheila, the demon actually intends to punish her if she believes the sentence written on the sheet of paper.) If evidence is factive (as Williamson argues), P won’t be evidence for C. Yet it still seems to me that Sheila could believe C based on P, and that her belief that P would rationalize her (both epistemically and all things considered) in believing C.

A similar point can be made even if one rejects the assumption that evidence is factive. For instance, suppose one accepts Goldman’s proposal that q is an item of evidence for S at t iff q is non-inferentially, propositionally justified for S at t. Since P is only inferentially justified for Sheila, Goldman’s account will also entail that P isn’t part of Sheila’s evidence for C.

Perhaps the emendation should read instead: “when the belief about the practical consequences of believing p is neither evidence for p nor regarded by S as evidence for p.” But I worry that this emendation might also be insufficient, since it’s not clear to me that Sheila needs to believe that P provides evidence for C. I’m inclined to think that her belief that C could be based on her belief that P (and be rationalized by her belief that P), even if Sheila lacked the concept of evidence.

In response to Daniel, you may well be right that Kelly rejects the notion of “all things considered” rationality for beliefs. However, when he first brings up the proposal (imputed to Foley) that the expected consequences of believing p might all things considered rationalize S in believing p, he doesn’t dismiss the notion of all things considered rationality for beliefs as ill-formulated or incoherent (p.172). Rather, he appears to argue against the proposal on the following grounds:
i) A belief could only be rationalized (in any sense) by the considerations on which it is based.
ii) A belief that p can’t be based on a belief about the practical consequences of believing p.
iii) A belief that p can’t be rationalized (in any sense) by beliefs about the practical consequences of believing that p. (From i, ii)

(This, at any rate, is how I understood the argument on p.174 to run.) I think my example undermines the argument, since it shows that ii) is false.

It’s certainly possible that I have misconstrued Kelly’s argument. But I’m not aware of any alternative construal of Kelly’s argument that supports iii) without relying on ii).

Daniel

4/12/2010 03:06:14 pm

Hi Bob,

I admit I was just going from my general sense of what Kelly's views are on the question of "all-things considered" rationality for beliefs. But re-reading the paper, I'm inclined to think that he does reject the notion. I'm not sure you're right that he doesn't dismiss the notion of all things considered rationality as ill formulated or incoherent. He does say this:

"With respect to beliefs, rationality just is epistemic rationality." (172)

I take it that the idea here is that the only way we can evaluate beliefs as rational or irrational is by evaluating them as epistemically rational or irrational. We can ask other questions in the neighborhood (e.g., would it be practically rational to try to get ourselves to hold the beliefs?) but these aren't questions about whether the beliefs themselves are rational. In particular, there isn't some other notion of rationality (all things considered rationality) such that we can ask how rational beliefs are in that sense, where this is distinct from epistemic rationality. When he goes on to argue against, Foley, I take him to be arguing about epistemic rationality.

As for you reply to Richard, I'm not sure the emendation you suggest is the best one to try to repair the proposal.

Richard's original suggestion was that we should amend something like the following to each of the proposals: "except when the fact that believing P would be in S's interests is itself evidence for P."

Suppose we understand evidential relationships probabilistically. To get around the worry that evidence might have to be factive, we might instead go for the following: "except when the fact that believing P would be in S's interests is positively probabilistically relevant to P." Where the relevant notion of probability is evidential, or epistemic.

Williamson should be perfectly happy with this. Even if Q is false, it's still possible for the epistemic probability of S given Q to be greater than the unconditional epistemic probability of S. And this also doesn't require the subject to have the concept of evidence, so it gets around your other worry.

Thoughts?

Thomas Kelly

4/14/2010 12:50:33 am

Dear All,

Thanks for your engagement with my paper; I appreciate it.

A couple of thoughts, mostly by way of clarification: as Daniel suggests, I’m skeptical of the idea that there is more than one kind of rationality in terms of which token beliefs can be appraised: ‘epistemic rationality’ and, in addition to that, something else, ‘all things considered rationality’. I’m inclined to think that when it comes to the rationality of belief (as opposed to the rationality of actions aimed at acquiring beliefs, etc.), rationality just is epistemic rationality, in the same way that when it comes to the rationality of action, rationality just is practical rationality. (Quite a few people disagree with this, of course, but one of the clearest examples of the kind of view that I have in mind is Richard Foley’s, as put forth in his The Theory of Epistemic Rationality and later writings.) I don’t pretend to have offered some knock-down argument for that conclusion in the paper; more modestly, one of the main points is that the undisputed facts that (i) we can evaluate a token belief in terms of its expected utility, and (ii) in some cases, we can act so as to acquire a token belief because of its expected utility, are not themselves good reasons to think that there is some other kind of rationality applicable to beliefs, besides epistemic rationality. But I do think that, once we fully take those points on board, we ought to become extremely suspicious about the category of ‘practically rational beliefs’ (etc.).

On first reading, I’m inclined to agree that Bob’s case is a genuine counterexample to the three principles he provides. As Richard Chappell says, I think that this is compatible with the spirit of my view. Indeed, offhand (although I’m not in a position to look back at my paper at the moment) I’m not yet convinced that it’s incompatible with the letter of my view, either. Certainly, I don’t explicitly endorse any of the three generalizations; perhaps I say something that commits me to them; if so, I’d be very interested in hearing what that is (if only so that I can avoid saying it again in the future!) In any case, as to the spirit of the view: my main thought is that only epistemic considerations rationalize beliefs. One tricky thing here is that, in certain circumstances/if one tells the right background story, the fact that a given belief has high expected utility can itself be an epistemic reason/evidence that the belief is true. (We could provide lots of examples of this kind of thing; but I take it that it follows from the more general and familiar fact that, given the right background story, [almost] anything can count as an epistemic reason to believe [almost] anything else.)

One might worry that this admission threatens to trivialize the claim that ‘practical considerations don’t rationalize beliefs’, but I think that that’s a mistake: in particular, if someone tells you ‘Here’s why it’s reasonable for you to believe in God: you’d be better off if you did’ is (in any remotely normal case) making a mistake, even if it is indeed true that you’d be better off as a believer. (Etc. etc.)

Thanks again for taking up my paper. Unfortunately, given my schedule over the next few days, I won’t be able to contribute any further to this thread, but if others do, I will certainly read what they have to say with interest! TK

Bob

4/14/2010 07:06:36 pm

In response to Professor Kelly,
First of all, thanks a lot for taking the time to respond to my post. Let me explain why I thought that your paper commits you to the three theses I formulated.

On p.174 you write: “Here, I think is why practical considerations do not rationalize beliefs. Although practical considerations can make a difference to what one believes, they do not do so by constituting grounds on which beliefs are based… And rational beliefs, like rational actions, are rationalized by those considerations on which they are based.”

In this passage I took you to be endorsing the following theses:
T1: For any subject S and any proposition p: it’s not possible for S to believe p based on practical considerations.
T2: For any S and any p: it’s not possible for S’s belief that p to be rationalized by practical considerations.

In order to understand T1 and T2, it’s important to be clear on what’s meant by a “practical consideration.” As far as I can tell, you never offer an explicit definition. However, at one point you write: “the acknowledged possibility of wishful thinking should be carefully distinguished from the (alleged) possibility of basing one’s beliefs on practical considerations. To a first approximation: wishful thinking involves holding a belief because one thinks that things would be better if that belief were true. This of course, is quite different from holding a belief because one thinks that things would be better if one held that belief.” (p.177) I took this passage to imply the following:

Sufficient Condition for a Being a Practical Consideration (SC): If r is a proposition about the practical consequences of believing p, then r is a practical consideration with regards to p.

It seems clear that the conjunction of SC and T1 entails the psychological thesis. Furthermore, the conjunction of SC and T2 appears to entail the weak rationality thesis (as well as the strong rationality thesis, if one regards the notion of all things considered rationalization as coherent).

Now, I may well be wrong about how you were using the term, “practical consideration”; it may be the case that you don’t endorse SC after all. But then how should we understand the notion of a practical consideration?

(Here’s a second (fairly natural) proposal for how to understand the notion: a proposition r is a practical consideration with regards to a subject S and belief B iff the following holds: were r true, it would be in S’s practical interests to believe B. However, this presumably isn’t what you mean by the notion of a practical consideration, since T1 and T2 will both come out false. After all, Sheila’s belief that P is a belief such that if it were true, it would be in Sheila’s best interests to believe C.)

Since I’m not sure how to understand the relevant notion of a practical consideration, I’m not sure how to evaluate the take-away message of section 2 of your paper. You claim that only epistemic considerations can rationalize beliefs. You also claim that practical considerations don’t rationalize beliefs, and, furthermore, beliefs can’t be based on practical considerations. But I don’t see why the following situation couldn’t obtain: a certain consideration r is both an epistemic consideration and a practical consideration for believing q; furthermore, a person S believes q based on r, and in doing so is rationalized by r. In the example I gave, why isn’t Sheila’s belief that P both a practical consideration and an epistemic consideration in favor of C?

Perhaps you’re willing to allow that Sheila’s belief that P is both an epistemic consideration in favor of C and a practical consideration in favor of C. Perhaps your message is simply the following: a practical consideration r cannot rationalize a belief that p unless r is also an epistemic consideration in favor of p. If this is your main point, I’m inclined to agree, but I’m also inclined to think that some of your remarks suggest a much stronger view (e.g. your unqualified claim that “practical considerations do not rationalize beliefs” (p.177), as well as your conjecture that “it is part of the nature of beliefs that beliefs are states which can be based on epistemic considerations but not on practical considerations” (ibid)).

Anyway, I hope this clarifies how I understood you to be using the expression, “practical consideration”, and why I was inclined to attribute to you the three theses I delineated at the beginning of my post. Thanks again for taking the time to comment - my apologies if I unwittingly misrepresented your view.

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